Análise do modelo logístico aplicado à primeira onda da Covid-19 nos países com os 20 maiores PIB'S / Analysis of the logistic model applied to the first wave of Covid-19 in countries with the 20 largest GDP'S

Objetivo: aplicar a modelagem logística da primeira onda da COVID-19, com índice nos países com 20 maiores Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Métodos: foi utilizada a modelagem matemática de crescimento logístico, considerando os seguintes parâmetros: número cumulativo de casos (C), tamanho final da epidemia na onda única de um surto (K), taxa intrínseca de crescimento (y) e tempo de inflexão (τ). Resultados: o Brasil apresentou maior número de casos e mortalidade, e os Estados Unidos da América (EUA) maior número de casos absolutos. A Coreia do Sul evidenciou o menor ponto de inflexão de 15,3 dias, enquanto o maior foi da Indonésia, com 213,9 dias. Na análise entre o ponto de inflexão e casos acumulados (/100 mil habitantes), observou-se correlação positiva moderada significativa (r=0,629 e p=0,003); (r=0,532 e p=0,016). Conclusão: o reconhecimento do comportamento de uma epidemia por meio da modelagem matemática torna possível determinar a propagação de uma epidemia, visto que, com a possibilidade de captar a dinâmica de uma epidemia, torna-se possível prever a necessidade de medidas públicas antecipadas e, consequentemente, diminuição da mortalidade global.

Objective: to apply logistic modeling of the first wave of COVID-19 in countries with the 20 highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Methods: logistic growth mathematical modeling was used, considering the following parameters: cumulative number of cases (C), the final size of the epidemic in the single wave of an outbreak (K), intrinsic growth rate (y), and inflection time (τ). Results: Brazil showed the highest number of cases and mortality, and the United States of America (USA) had the highest number of absolute cases. South Korea showed the lowest inflection point of 15.3 days, while the highest infection point was Indonesia, with 213.9 days. In the analysis between the inflection point and cumulative cases (/100,000 population), a moderate significant positive correlation was observed (r=0.629 and p=0.003); (r=0.532 and p=0.016). Conclusion: the recognition of the behavior of an epidemic through mathematical modeling makes it possible to determine the spread of an epidemic, since, with the possibility of capturing the dynamics of an epidemic, it becomes possible to predict the need for anticipated public measures and, consequently, decrease in overall mortality.

¿Cómo evolucionó la distribución de médicas y médicos especialistas en Argentina?: un análisis demográfico de la profesión médica al 2020 / How did the distribution of doctors and medical specialists evolve in Argentina?: a demographic analysis of the medical profession to 2020

Las políticas sobre trabajadores/as de salud deben garantizar su distribución adecuada. En Argentina dicha distribución es desigual, sobre todo en especialistas en atención primaria de la salud (APS). El objetivo de este trabajo fue describir la distribución de médicos/as, especialistas lineales y en APS en Argentina, durante el año 2020, teniendo en cuenta la situación económica y sanitaria de cada jurisdicción. Se trata de un trabajo descriptivo y analítico, que utilizó fuentes de datos primarias y secundarias. Se correlacionó la tasa de mortalidad infantil y el producto bruto per cápita de cada jurisdicción ordenándolas de mejores a peores indicadores. La tasa de médicos fue 3,88 médicos/as cada 1000 habitantes, 72% concentrándose en 4 jurisdicciones (Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Provincia de Buenos Aires, Córdoba y Santa Fe). El 53% son especialistas y el 27,6% lo son en APS. CABA tuvo una tasa de 16,5 médicos/as por mil; Santiago del Estero y Formosa alcanzaron valores de 1,8 y 1,9 médicas/os por mil habitantes respectivamente. Con respecto a 2014, se observó disminución de especialistas en APS (-14,8%), registrándose las mayores pérdidas en Santiago del Estero, Formosa y Catamarca (-84,5%; -70,1% y -87,3%). La situación nacional sobre la distribución de médicos/as en Argentina desde 1954 a la actualidad fue empeorando en detrimento de las provincias con mayores necesidades. La baja adherencia al sistema de residencias a especialidades de APS pronostica un empeoramiento de la situación de no haber cambios estructurales. Será necesario un fortalecimiento del rol rector del estado en el abordaje de esta problemática (AU)

Policies on health workers must guarantee their adequate distribution. In Argentina, this distribution is unequal, particularly among primary care specialists (PHC).The objective of this article is to describe the distribution of physicians, PHC and non-PHC specialists in Argentina in 2020, considering the economic and health situation of each jurisdiction.We conducted a descriptive cross-sectional study with an analytical stage using primary and secondary data sources. The jurisdictions were classified according to the correlation between infant mortality rate and gross product per capita.The rate of physicians in Argentina in 2020 was 3.88 physicians per 1,000 inhabitants. 72% are concentrated in 4 jurisdictions (City of Buenos Aires, Province of Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Santa Fe). 53% are specialists and 27.6% are PHC specialists. The City of Buenos Aires has a rate of 16.5 physicians per thousand; and Santiago del Estero and Formosa reach values of 1.8 and 1.9 physicians per thousand inhabitants, respectively.There was a decrease in PHC specialists (-14.8%), with major losses recorded in Santiago del Estero, Formosa and Catamarca (-84.5%; -70.1% and -87.3%, respectively).The distribution of physicians in Argentina from 1954 to the present has worsened to the detriment of the provinces with the greatest needs. The lack of adheren-ce to the specialty of PHC predicts a worsening of the situation if there are no structural changes. It is necessary to strengthen the leading role of the state in addressing this problem (AU)

Uma avaliação empírica do tamanho ótimo dos municípios / An Empirical Assessment of the Optimal Size of Municipalities / Una evaluación empírica del tamaño ideal de los municipios

Esta pesquisa tem o objetivo de realizar uma investigação empírica sobre o tamanho ótimo dos municípios, isto é, a quantidade de habitantes que propicia o menor nível de despesas em relação ao PIB municipal, de modo que se obtenha escala econômica para otimização da aplicação dos recursos públicos. Este estudo analisa uma amostra de dados de 4.835 municípios com população inferior a 50.000 habitantes, que representam 89% do total de municípios brasileiros. A base de dados reúne informações de receitas e despesas municipais, extraídas do Finanças do Brasil - Dados Contábeis dos Municípios - Finbra 2010 e dados socioeconômicos do Censo Demográfico do IBGE 2010 e do PIB dos municípios do IBGE 2010. Os resultados empíricos indicam que o tamanho ótimo de população para um município brasileiro equivale aproximadamente a 31.667 habitantes por cidade, com base em métodos econométricos como mínimos quadrados ordinários com desvio padrão robusto. Esse porte populacional proporciona ganhos de escala na administração pública e confere maior autonomia local em relação ao governo central para ofertar bens públicos de qualidade.

This research aims to carry out an empirical investigation on the optimal size of the municipalities, that is, the number of inhabitants that offers the lowest level of expenditure in relation to the municipal GDP, obtaining an economic scale to provide the best level of public resources. This study analyzes a sample of data from 4.835 municipalities with a population of less than 50,000 inhabitants, which represent 89% of the total Brazilian municipalities. The database gathers information on municipal revenues and expenses extracted from Finance of Brazil - Accounting Data of Municipalities - FINBRA 2010, socioeconomic data from the 2010 IBGE Demographic Census and the municipalities GDP from the 2010 IBGE. The outcomes showed that the optimal population size for a Brazilian municipality is equivalent to 31.667 inhabitants per city, based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with robust standards errors. This population size provides gains of scale in public administration and improves local autonomy in relation to the central government in order to offer quality public goods.

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo realizar una investigación empírica sobre el tamaño óptimo de los municipios, es decir, sobre el número de habitantes que proporciona el menor nivel de gasto en relación al producto bruto interno (PIB) municipal, de manera de obtener la escala económica para la optimización de la aplicación de recursos públicos. Para ello analiza una muestra de datos de 4835 municipios con una población de menos de cincuenta mil habitantes, lo que representa el 89 % de todos los municipios brasileños. La base de datos recopila información sobre ingresos y gastos municipales, extraídos de Finanzas de Brasil-Datos contables municipales-FINBRA 2010, datos socioeconómicos del censo demográfico del IBGE de 2010 y datos del PIB de los municipios en 2010. Los resultados empíricos informaron que el tamaño ideal de la población de un municipio brasileño es equivalente a aproximadamente 31.667 habitantes por ciudad, según métodos econométricos, como enteros cuadrados ordinarios con desviación estándar robusta. Este tamaño de población ofrece ganancias de escala en la administración pública y otorga mayor autonomía local en relación con el gobierno central para ofrecer bienes públicos de calidad.

El costo de la doble carga de la Malnutrición: impacto social y económico / The cost of the double burden of Malnutrition: social and economic impact

"La asociación entre el Programa Mundial de Alimentos (WFP) y la Comisión Económica para América Latina yel Caribe (CEPAL) se remonta a 2005, cuando ambas organizaciones se unieron para desarrollar y aplicar la metodología del Costo del Hambre en la región de América Latina y el Caribe y luego en África. Esta vez, como resultado del aumento del sobrepeso y la obesidad, en un contexto en el cual todavía existe desnutrición, se amplió el modelo de análisis para medir el impacto social y económico de la doble carga de la malnutrición. Inicialmente, se realizó un estudio piloto en México, Ecuador y Chile. Luego del estudio piloto, en esta segunda fase del estudio, y con el apoyo del Instituto de Nutrición de Centro América y Panamá (INCAP), se ha trabajado en Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras y República Dominicana. Para el caso de Guatemala, en la dimensión incidental retrospectiva del modelo se estimaron efectos y costos que la malnutrición generó para el año 2018. En la dimensión prospectiva, los efectos y costos futuros resultantes de la malnutrición que afectó a la población guatemalteca en el año 2018 se proyectaron para el período 2019-2082. Se encontrará en su contenido una lista de los principales efectos y costos asociados a la desnutrición. Concluyendo que para el 2018 el costo de la doble carga de la malnutrición asciende a 12 034 millones de dólares, equivalentes al 16,3% del PIB. De éstos, 8 220 millones (poco más de dos tercios) son atribuibles a la desnutrición y 3 813 millones al sobrepeso y la obesidad. Sin embargo, debido a que la desnutrición presenta en las últimas décadas una ligera tendencia a la baja (aunque sigue siendo alta), los costos futuros de la doble carga de la malnutrición serán atribuibles, principalmente, al sobrepeso y a la obesidad (aproximadamente un 88%) reflejando muy claramente el cambio en los perfiles

Costos en salud: un asunto polémico / Healthcare costs. A polemic matter

Existen dos problemas que complican el manejo de los costos en las organizaciones sanitarias. Uno es el carácter humanista, solidario y ético de esta actividad al que, en consecuencia, no le son aplicables muchos de los criterios y métodos que se emplean en la industria, el comercio e incluso en otros servicios. El otro tiene que ver con el complejo entramado de los procesos en esas organizaciones, donde prácticamente cada paciente o cada especialidad tiene su propio recorrido que lo caracteriza en términos de: lugares físicos, secuencia, tipo de persona a intervenir, desplazamientos, intensidad, medios técnicos, instrumentos, materiales a emplear y características de los resultados que deben esperarse. Derivado del primero aparecen criterios sobre - salud a cualquier costo - la buena salud es cara o mientras mayor porcentaje obtengamos del producto interno bruto mejor salud haremos. . Del segundo aparecen sistemas suficientemente complicados para no hacer notar que en muchas ocasiones los recursos consumidos no se convierten en efectos positivos para las personas y las poblaciones. Se trata entonces de despejar ambos problemas y sobre todo de alertar dónde están los puntos débiles y qué se puede hacer al respecto(AU)

There are two problems that complicate the management of costs in health organizations. One is the humanist, solidary and ethical character of this activity and to which, consequently, many of the criterions and methods are not applied as they are in industry, trade, and even other services. The other problem is related with the complex intertwining of processes in those organizations, where virtually every patient or specialty have their own follow-up features characterizing them in terms of physical spaces, sequence, type of intervened person, movement, intensity, equipment, instruments, used materials, and characteristics of expected outcome. The first one creates criterions about health at any costs, quality health is expensive, the higher percentage from the growth domestic product, the better health will be provided. The second creates systems complicated enough to conceal that consumed resources mostly don't turn into positive effects for people and populations. This is then about isolating both problems and, above all, warning about weaknesses and how to deal with them(AU)

Monocultivos e industrias extractivas en Guatemala: ¿Qué relación tienen la deficiencia institucional, la falta de investigación científica y los impactos ambientales? / Monoculture and extractive industries in Guatemala: What is the relationship between institutional deficiency, lack of scientific research and environmental impacts?

Guatemala es considerado uno de los países megadiversos a nivel mundial. En conjunto, estos países albergan más del 70 % de biodiversidad del planeta, en tan sólo alrededor del 10 % de su territorio. Debido a la diversidad de recursos naturales, no resulta extraño que la economía del país dependa principalmente de estos. El ser una potencia mundial en biodiversidad podría representar múltiples ventajas y oportunidades, pero en realidad la degradación de los recursos naturales es histórica y persiste. Los monocultivos y la industria extractiva son ejemplos de actividades económicas que se han expandido en la región, contribuyendo al deterioro de los recursos naturales. Existe una paradoja, «la maldición de los recursos naturales¼, la cual se refiere a la situación en que países con muchos recursos naturales, suelen tener bajas tasas de crecimiento económico y una explicación es la debilidad institucional. El que existan deficiencias institucionales se relaciona con falta en cumplimiento de ley, una ineficiente regulación y manejo de recursos naturales y su consiguiente degradación. Si a esto agregamos que Guatemala invierte apenas el 0.029% del PIB en actividades de investigación, hallamos otra explicación a estas deficiencias, ya que las instituciones no tienen datos para tomar decisiones fundamentadas. Así se vincula el deterioro ambiental con las deficiencias institucionales, lo cual también se relaciona con poca investigación y reducido crecimiento económico. Aunque estos vínculos rara vez se resaltan, es necesario hacerlo para comprender y promover cambios dentro de un sistema explotador de recursos, que afecta la calidad de vida de los guatemaltecos.

Guatemala is considered one of the megadiverse countries worldwide. Together, these countries contain more than the 70 % of the planet's biodiversity, in only about 10 % of its territory. Due to the diversity of its natural resources, it is not surprising that the country's economy depends mainly on these. This great biodiversity could represent multiple advantages and opportunities, but the reality is that the degradation of natural resources is historical and persistent. Monocultures and extractive industry are examples of activities that have expanded in the region, contributing to the deterioration of natural resources. There is a paradox, "the curse of natural resources", which refers to the situation in which countries with many natural resources tend to have low rates of economic growth and an explanation for this is institutional weakness. The existence of institutional deficiencies is related to lack of compliance with the law, inefficient regulation and management of natural resources and their consequent degradation. If we add to this that Guatemala invests only 0.029 % of GDP in research activities, we find another explanation for these deficiencies, since the institutions do not have data to make informed decisions. This links environmental deterioration with institutional deficiencies, which is also related to little research and reduced economic growth. Although these links are rarely highlighted, it is necessary to do so in order to understand and promote changes within an exploitative resource system that affects the life quality of all Guatemalans.

Crises econômicas, mortalidade de crianças e o papel protetor do gasto público em saúde / Economic crises, child mortality and the protective role of public health expenditure

Resumo O objetivo do estudo foi analisar como as crises econômicas afetam a saúde infantil a nível global e entre subgrupos de países com diferentes níveis de renda. Foram utilizados dados do Banco Mundial e da OMS para 127 países entre os anos de 1995 e 2014. Foi utilizado um modelo de efeitos fixos, avaliando o efeito da mudança em indicadores macroeconômicos (PIB per capita, taxa de desemprego e de inflação, e taxa de desconforto) na taxa de mortalidade neonatal, infantil, e de menores de cinco anos. Adicionalmente, avaliou-se a modificação do efeito da associação de acordo com a renda dos países e também a influência do gasto público em saúde nessa relação. As evidências mostraram que piores indicadores econômicos (menor PIB per capita e maiores inflação, taxa de desemprego e taxa de desconforto) estão associados com maiores taxas de mortalidade infantil. Nas subamostras por estrato de renda, observa-se a mesma relação, porém com efeitos de maior magnitude entre os países de renda baixa e média. Verificou-se ainda que um maior percentual nos gastos públicos em saúde ameniza os efeitos dos indicadores econômicos nas taxas de mortalidade infantil. Desta forma, é necessário aumentar a atenção aos efeitos nocivos das crises macroeconômicas para garantir melhorias na saúde infantil.

Abstract The aim of the study was to analyze how economic crises affect child health globally and between subgroups of countries with different levels of income. Data from the World Bank and the World Health Organization were used for 127 countries between 1995 and 2014. A fixed effects model was used, evaluating the effect of the change on macroeconomic indicators (GDP per capita, unemployment and inflation rates and misery index) in neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates. Moreover, we evaluated whether there was a change in the association effect according to the income of the countries and also analyzed the role of public health expenditure in this association. Evidence has shown that worse economic indicators (lower GDP per capita, higher inflation, unemployment rates and misery index) are associated with higher child mortality rates. In the subsamples by income strata, the same association is observed, but with effects of greater magnitude for low- and middle-income countries. We also verified that a higher percentage in public health expenditures alleviates the effects of economic indicators on child mortality rates. Thus, more attention needs to be paid to the harmful effects of the macroeconomic crises to ensure improvements in child health.

Innovación en salud en México: retos importantes y un largo camino que recorrer / Health innovation in Mexico: important challenges and a long road to walk

Resumen: La transferencia de tecnología de instituciones de investigación en salud a empresas que generen nuevos tratamientos médicos ha generado grandes beneficios para la salud pública a nivel mundial. Sin embargo, en México existen importantes rezagos en los indicadores de innovación. Hay barreras culturales, regulatorias y financieras que obstaculizan la innovación en México. Al mismo tiempo, los últimos años han visto la aparición de varias iniciativas útiles que avanzan en la dirección correcta. El presente trabajo describe la situación actual y las principales barreras y oportunidades para promover la innovación en salud y la contribución de ésta a mejoras en salud pública.

Abstract: The transfer of technology from health research institutions to businesses that develop new medical treatments has generated great benefits for public health at a global level. Mexico however, is lagging in innovation indicators. There are important cultural, regulatory, and financial barriers that limit innovation in Mexico. However recent years have seen the appearance of several useful initiatives that constitute progress in the right direction. This work provides a brief overview of the current situation of innovation in Mexico, describes the main barriers and gives recommendations that can promote health innovation in Mexico, which can contribute to improvements in public health.

Avaliação de custo-efetividade e impacto orçamentário do tratamento adicional de omalizumabe em pacientes com asma alérgica grave não controlada / Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of additional treatment of omalizumab in patients with severe uncontrolled allergic asthma

Objetivo: Avaliar a custo-efetividade e o impacto orçamentário da adição do omalizumabe (Oma) ao tratamento padrão [corticosteroide inalatório [CI] em dose média/alta e agente beta 2-agonista de longa ação (LABA)] no tratamento da asma alérgica grave não controlada, sob a perspectiva do sistema privado de saúde no Brasil. Método: Na análise econômica, utilizou-se o modelo de Markov baseado na evolução da asma, considerando os seguintes desfechos clínicos: exacerbações graves clinicamente significantes (EGCS) e exacerbações não graves clinicamente significantes (ECS), além de taxa de mortalidade por asma e uso de recursos e custos com o tratamento. Calculou-se razões de custo-efetividade incremental (RCEI) e o impacto orçamentário, com base em dados da saúde suplementar sobre população elegível e horizonte de 5 anos. Resultados: A análise de custoefetividade realizada mostrou que o tratamento com Oma teve maior benefício, se comparado ao tratamento padrão, e gerou uma RCEI de R$ 60.293,00 por ano de vida salvo, que é três vezes inferior ao produto interno bruto (PIB) per capita no Brasil. A análise de sensibilidade, para avaliar o impacto da incerteza dos parâmetros sobre o resultado encontrado, demonstrou que os resultados permanecem estáveis a favor do Oma. A análise do impacto orçamentário apontou um custo por beneficiário de R$ 0,40 no primeiro ano, chegando a R$ 1,80 no quinto ano. Conclusão: A análise econômica demonstrou que a combinação do tratamento com Oma com o padrão para asma alérgica grave não controlada é custo-efetivo no cenário nacional, e a sua incorporação na saúde suplementar é viável.

Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of adding omalizumab (Oma) to standard treatment (medium/highdose inhaled corticosteroid [ICS] and long-acting beta 2-agonist [LABA]) in the treatment of severe uncontrolled allergic asthma, from the perspective of the Brazilian private health system (PHS). Method: In economic analysis, the Markov model was used based on the progression of asthma considering the following clinical outcomes: clinically significant severe exacerbations (CSSE) and clinically significant non-severe exacerbations (CSNSE), as well as asthma mortality rate and use of resources and costs of treatment. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and budgetary impact were calculated based on PHS data regarding eligible population and 5-year horizon scanning. Results: The cost-effectiveness analysis showed that treatment with Oma provided greater benefit compared to the standard treatment and generated an ICER of BRL 60,293 per life-years saved, corresponding to less than three times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Brazil. A sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of parameter uncertainty showed that results still favor Oma. The budget impact analysis showed a cost of BRL 0.40 per recipient in the first year, reaching BRL 1.80 in the fifth year. Conclusion: The economic analysis demonstrated that combined Oma treatment and standard treatment of uncontrolled severe allergic asthma is cost-effective in the national setting and its incorporation into PHS is feasible.

Omalizumabe no tratamento da urticária crônica espontânea: análise de custo-efetividade e impacto orçamentário / Omalizumab in the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria: cost-effectiveness analysis and budgetary impact

Objetivos: Determinar a relação custo-efetividade da adição do omalizumabe (Oma) no tratamento da urticária crônica espontânea (UCE) refratária aos tratamentos convencionais, bem como o impacto orçamentário no contexto da saúde suplementar (SS) no Brasil. Métodos: Na análise econômica, utilizou-se o modelo de Markov baseado no Urticaria Activity Score for 7 days (UAS7), considerando- se os desfechos clínicos: anos de vida salvos com doença controlada (UAS7 = 0 ou UAS7 ≤ 6), e anos de vida ajustados à qualidade (QALY). Três razões de custo-efetividade incremental (RCEI) foram calculadas. O impacto orçamentário foi calculado com base em dados da SS, população elegível e o horizonte de 5 anos. Resultados: As RCEI calculadas para o desfecho anos de vida salvos com doença controlada nos horizontes de 3 e 5 anos foram R$ 108.935,42 e R$ 166.977,29, respectivamente. O impacto orçamentário, do primeiro ao quinto ano, da incorporação do Oma à SS para o tratamento de pacientes com UCE refratária variou entre R$ 65 milhões e R$ 157 milhões, que equivaleria a R$ 1,38/assistido no primeiro ano incorporação. Sendo assim, ao analisar os custos adicionais por desfecho adicional salvo, nota-se que a RCEI também se mostrou menor que três vezes o PIB per capita no Brasil, podendo-se dizer que o tratamento com Oma é custo-efetivo em comparação ao tratamento atual também neste desfecho. Conclusão: A análise econômica demonstrou que o tratamento com Oma da UCE refratária ao tratamento com antihistamínicos H1 em doses elevadas é custo-efetivo no cenário nacional, e a sua incorporação na SS é viável.

Objectives: To determine the cost-effectiveness of adding omalizumab (Oma) to the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) refractory to conventional treatments, as well as its budgetary impact in the context of private health insurance (PHI) in Brazil. Methods: In the economic analysis, the Markov model based on the Urticaria Activity Score over 7 days (UAS7) was used considering the following clinical outcomes: life years saved with controlled disease (UAS7 = 0 or UAS7 ≤ 6) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Three incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. The budgetary impact was calculated using PHI data, eligible population, and 5-year horizon. Results: The estimated ICERs for life years saved with controlled disease in 3- and 5-year horizons were R$ 108,935.42 and R$ 166,977.29, respectively. The budgetary impact from the first to the fifth year of the incorporation of Oma into PHI for the treatment of patients with refractory CSU ranged from R$ 65 million to R$ 157 million, equivalent to R$ 1.38/assisted patient in the first year of incorporation. When additional costs were analyzed per additional outcome saved, ICER was shown to be less than three times the GDP per capita in Brazil. Thus, Oma is cost-effective compared to the current treatment in this outcome as well. Conclusion: The economic analysis demonstrated that treatment with Oma of CSU refractory to the treatment with H1 antihistamines in high doses is cost-effective in the Brazilian setting and its incorporation into the PHI system is feasible.

Household Out-of-Pocket Payments and Trend in Korea / 보건행정학회지

After the announcement of Moon Jae-in Government's plan (Moon's Care) for Benefit Expansion in National Health Insurance in August 2017, it is necessary to monitor the effects of the policy, especially household out-of-pocket payments (OOP). This paper aims to observe the current status and trend of OOP in Korea. Current health expenditure (CHE) was 144.4 trillion won in 2018, which accounts for 8.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) increased 9.7% from the previous year. Although GDP's share of CHE has been close to the average of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, the public fund's share was 59.8% of the total in 2018, which was lower than the OECD average of 73.5%. OOP's share was 32.9% in 2018, which decreased from 37.4% in 2008. The share of OOP of non-covered services was 20.0% in 2018, which decreased from 22.9% in 2008. The share of cost-sharing with third-party payers was 12.9% in 2018, which decreased from 14.5% in 2008. The OOP of non-covered services was significantly decreased in hospital and inpatient curative care, but the OOP of non-covered services was significantly increased in the medical clinic. The effect of Moon's Care was not showed in OOP through the results of 2017 and 2018, but further monitoring is needed because the Moon's Care is progressing and the observational period is short.

2018 Current Health Expenditures and National Health Accounts in Korea / 보건행정학회지

This paper aims to demonstrate current health expenditure (CHE) and National Health Accounts of the years 2018 constructed according to the SHA2011, which is a manual for System of Health Accounts (SHA) that was published jointly by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Eurostat, and World Health Organization in 2011. Comparison is made with international trends by collecting and analyzing health accounts of OECD member countries. Particularly, scale and trends of the total CHE financing as well as public-private mix are parsed in depth. In the case of private financing, estimation of total expenditures for (revenues by) provider groups (HP) is made from both survey on the benefit coverage rate of National Health Insurance (by National Health Insurance Service) and Economic Census and Service Industry Census (by National Statistical Office); and other pieces of information from Korean Health Panel Study, etc. are supplementarily used to allocate those totals into functional classifications. CHE was 144.4 trillion won in 2018, which accounts for 8.1% of Korea's gross domestic product (GDP). It was a big increase of 12.8 trillion won, or 9.7%, from the previous year. GDP share of Korean CHE has already been close to the average of OECD member countries. Government and compulsory schemes' share (or public share), 59.8% of the CHE in 2018, is much lower than the OECD average of 73.6%. ‘Transfers from government domestic revenue’ share of total revenue of health financing was 16.9% in Korea, lower than the other social insurance countries. When it comes to ‘compulsory contributory health financing schemes,’ ‘transfers from government domestic revenue’ share of 13.5% was again much lower compared to Japan (43.0%) and Belgium (30.1%) with social insurance scheme.

Observando o desenvolvimento regional do Vale do Rio Pardo: notas sobre as dinâmicas econômicas recentes / Observing the regional development of the Pardo River Valley: notes on recent economic dynamics / Observando el desarrollo regional del Vale do Rio Pardo: notas sobre las dinámicas económicas recientes

Este artigo aborda as dinâmicas econômicas recentes da região do Vale do Rio Pardo, localizada na área central do Rio Grande do Sul, alisando as relações com o desenvolvimento regional. Nesse sentido, buscou-se analisar as seguintes variáveis para a compreensão do desenvolvimento dessa região em sua dimensão econômica: PIB, VAB, Empregos, Exportações, PIB per capita, Gini, Estrutura Fundiária, Produção Agrícola e IDESE, para melhor compreender o desenvolvimento territorial do Corede VRP. Os resultados apontam que a região ainda permanece vinculada fortemente à produção e transformação de tabaco, embora tenha havido um aumento importante na área e na produção de soja. Também se verifica a manutenção da desigualdade espacial na distribuição da atividade econômica no conjunto do território regional e da sua concentração na área central da região, notadamente no município de Santa Cruz do Sul, polo econômico regional.(AU)

This article discusses the recent economic dynamics of the Vale do Rio Pardo region, located in the central area of Rio Grande do Sul, smoothing relations with regional development. In this sense, we aimed to analyze the following variables to understand the development of this region in its economic dimension: GDP, GVA, Employment, Exports, GDP per capita, Gini, Land Structure, Agricultural Production and IDESE, to better understand territorial development of Corede VRP. The results indicate that the region still remains strongly linked to the production and processing of tobacco, although there has been a significant increase in the area and in the production of soybeans. It is also verified the maintenance of spatial inequality in the distribution of economic activity in the region as a whole and its concentration in the central area of the region, especially in the municipality of Santa Cruz do Sul, regional economic hub.(AU)

Este artículo aborda las dinámicas económicas recientes de la región del Vale do Rio Pardo, ubicada en el área central de Rio Grande do Sul, alisando las relaciones con el desarrollo regional. En este sentido, se buscó analizar las siguientes variables para la comprensión del desarrollo de esa región en su dimensión económica: PIB, VAB, Empleos, Exportaciones, PIB per cápita, Índice de Gini, Estructura Fundiaria, Producción Agrícola e IDESE, para comprender mejor el desarrollo territorial del Corede VRP. Los resultados apuntan que la región sigue siendo vinculada fuertemente a la producción y transformación de tabaco, aunque ha habido un importante aumento en el área y en la producción de soja. También se verifica el mantenimiento de la desigualdad espacial en la distribución de la actividad económica en el conjunto del territorio regional y de su concentración en el área central de la región, notadamente en el municipio de Santa Cruz do Sul, polo económico regional.(AU)

Response time in the emergency services. Systematic review

Abstract The growth of the urban population raises concern about municipal public managers in the sense of providing emergency medical services (EMS) that are aligned with the needs of prehospital emergency medical care demanded by the population. The literature review aims at presenting the response time of emergency medical services in several parts of the world and discussing some factors that interfere in the result of this indicator such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product) percentage spent on health and life expectancy of countries. The study will also show that in some of the consulted articles, authors suggest to EMS recommendations for decreasing the response time using simulations, heuristics and metaheuristics. Response time is a basic indicator of emergency medical services, in such a way that researchers use the descriptive statistics to evaluate this parameter. Europe and the USA outstand in the publication of studies that present this information. Some articles use stochastic and mathematical methods to suggest models that simulate scenarios of response time reduction and suggest such proposals to the local EMS. Countries in which the response time was identified have a high index of human development and life expectancy between 74.7 and 83.7 years.

A influência da capacidade econômica e da formação de receitas públicas no desenvolvimento humano / La influencia de la capacidad económica y de formación de ingressos económicos en desarrollo humano / The influence of economic capacity and the formation of public revenues on human development

Resumo A promoção do desenvolvimento humano, relacionada com a melhoria de diversas dimensões socioeconômicas, sofre influência do financiamento público e da circulação econômica. Nesse contexto, e considerando a importância do crescimento econômico para o desenvolvimento humano, o presente estudo tem por objetivo identificar as relações estruturais entre capacidade e perfil econômicos, arrecadação própria, transferências financeiras e desenvolvimento humano. Foram utilizados dados em painel logístico binomial. Os resultados apontaram a importância do PIB dos setores industrial e agropecuário e o volume das transferências intergovernamentais como influenciadores do desenvolvimento humano. Por outro lado, o setor de serviços apresentou efeito negativo, embora não se possa desconsiderar sua importância. O fato pode ser explicado pela sua presença em todos os municípios brasileiros, principalmente naqueles de pequeno porte, que na maioria das vezes apresentam baixa infraestrutura urbana, social e econômica e, consequentemente, concentram baixo valor agregado nesse setor econômico.

Resumen La promoción del desarrollo humano, relacionada a la mejora de diversas dimensiones socioeconómicas, sufre influencia del financiamiento público y de la circulación económica. En este contexto, teniendo en cuenta la importancia económica sobre el desarrollo humano, este artículo tiene el objetivo de identificar las relaciones estructurales entre las características económicas, propia capacidad de almacenamiento, las transferencias financieras y el desarrollo humano. Fue utilizado uno panel de datos, con la metodología logística binomial. Los resultados mostraron la importancia del PIB de los sectores industrial y agropecuario y el volumen de las transferencias intergubernamentales como influyentes del desarrollo humano. Por otro lado, el sector de servicio presentó un efecto negativo, aunque no se puede desconsiderar la importancia de este sector. Esto puede explicarse por su presencia en todos los municipios brasileños, principalmente en aquellos de pequeño porte que en la mayoría de las veces presentan baja infraestructura urbana, social y económica y, consecuentemente, concentran bajo valor agregado en este sector económico.

Abstract The promotion of human development, related to the improvement of several socioeconomic dimensions, is influenced by public funding and economic circulation. Considering the importance of economic growth to human development, this study aims to identify the structural relations of Brazilian municipalities' economic profile and capacity, their tax revenue, financial transfers and municipal human development. A binomial logistic regression with panel data was used. The results pointed out the importance of the industrial and agricultural GDP, as well as the volume of intergovernmental transfers as a conditioning factor of municipal human development. On the other hand, the service sector presented a negative influence, although its importance must not be disregarded. This can be explained by the presence of this sector in all Brazilian municipalities, especially the smaller ones, which in most cases have low urban, social and economic infrastructure and, consequently, concentrate low added value to this sector.

Evolução da mortalidade por doenças do aparelho circulatório e do Produto Interno Bruto per capita nos municípios do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / Evolution of mortality from diseases of the circulatory system and of gross domestic product per capita in the Rio de Janeiro state municipalities

Background: Diseases of the circulatory system are the leading cause of death in Brazil and the world, falling progressively during the twentieth century, preceded by an increase in Gross Domestic Product. Objective: To correlate balanced and adjusted mortality rates from circulatory system diseases in the municipalities of Rio de Janeiro state between 1979 and 2010 with the gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) beginning in 1950. Methods: Population and death data were obtained from the Department of Information and Computer Services at the National Health System/Brazilian Ministry of Health (Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde - Ministério da Saúde - DATASUS-MS). Mortality rates were calculated for Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), Cerebrovascular Disease (CBVD), and Circulatory System Disease (CSD); adjusted by the direct method; and balanced for ill-defined causes. The GDPpc data were obtained from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas Aplicadas - IPEA). Mortality rates were correlated with socioeconomic indicators using Pearson's linear correlation coefficient to determine the annual optimized lag time. Regression slope coefficients between the dependent disease and independent socioeconomic indicator were estimated. Results: In recent decades, there has been a reduction in mortality from CSD in all Rio de Janeiro state municipalities, mainly due to a decline in mortality from CBVD. The decline in mortality from CSD was preceded by an increase in the GDPpc, and a strong correlation was observed between this index and mortality rates. Conclusion: The evolution of the variation in GDPpc demonstrated a strong correlation with the reduction in CSD mortality. This relationship demonstrates the importance of improving the living conditions of the population to reduce cardiovascular mortality

Fundamentos: As doenças do aparelho circulatório são a primeira causa de morte no Brasil e no mundo, apresentando progressiva queda durante o século XX, precedida por elevação no Produto Interno Bruto. Objetivo: Correlacionar taxas de mortalidade compensadas e ajustadas por doenças do aparelho circulatório nos Municípios do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (ERJ) entre 1979 e 2010, com o Produto Interno Bruto per capita (PIBpc) a partir de 1950. Métodos: Populações e óbitos obtidos no DATASUS/MS. Calcularam-se taxas de mortalidade por Doenças Isquêmicas do Coração (DIC), Doenças Cerebrovasculares (DCBV), e Doenças do Aparelho Circulatório (DAC), e compensadas por causas mal definidas e ajustadas pelo método direto. Dados de PIBpc foram obtidos no Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas Aplicadas (IPEA). As taxas de mortalidade e o indicador socioeconômico foram correlacionados, pela estimação de coeficientes lineares de Pearson, para determinar a defasagem anual otimizada. Foram estimados os coeficientes de inclinação da regressão entre a dependente doença e a independente indicador socioeconômico. Resultados: Nas últimas décadas houve redução da mortalidade por DAC em todos os municípios do ERJ, esta ocorreu principalmente por queda da mortalidade por DCBV. A queda da mortalidade por doenças do aparelho circulatório foi precedida por elevação do PIBpc, com forte correlação entre o indicador e as taxas de mortalidade. Conclusão: A variação evolutiva do PIBpc demonstrou elevada correlação com a redução da mortalidade por DAC. Essas relações sinalizam a importância na melhoria das condições de vida da população para reduzir a mortalidade cardiovascular

Determinants of Health in Korea: A Comparative Analysis among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Countries / 보건행정학회지

BACKGROUND: This study aims to utilize Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data to identify macroscopic determinants of health at national level and to utilize it in health policy development through comparison and analysis with Korea. METHODS: The potential years of life lost (PYLL) were used as dependent variables and 19 indicators were selected as health determinants to be independent variables based on the results of previous studies. Data analysis was done using SAS ver. 9.4 package (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) and model used in technical statistics concerning PYLL by countries, multi-linearity test between independent variables and OECD economic studies were modified and used. RESULTS: From 1994 to 2012, the average PYLL for OECD countries was 4,262.9 years, the highest in Estonia and the lowest in Iceland. As a result of the analysis using the fixed effect model, the significant variables affecting PYLL were four variables: gross domestic product, nitric oxide, tobacco consumption, and number of doctors. The health determinants that had more influence on the PYLL of Korean people compared to other OECD countries were tobacco consumption, calorie consumption, fat intake and total health expenditure. CONCLUSION: In order to effectively reduce unnecessary deaths, we must continue to strengthen our smoking policy and nutrition policies such as calorie and fat intake. It is necessary to prevent the increase of total health expenditure due to the increase in the prevalence of chronic diseases and to strengthen the public health aspect.

Strategic Distributional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Improving National Cancer Screening Uptake in Cervical Cancer: A Focus on Regional Inequality in South Korea / Journal of the Korean Cancer Association, 대한암학회지

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to conduct a cost effectiveness analysis of strategies designed to improve national cervical cancer screening rates, along with a distributional cost effectiveness analysis that considers regional disparities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cost effectiveness analysis was conducted using a Markov cohort simulation model, with quality adjusted life years as the unit of effectiveness. The strategies considered were current (biennial Papanicolaou smear cytology of females aged 20 or above), strong screening recommendation by mail to target regions (effect, 12% increase in screening uptake; cost, 1,000 Korean won per person), regular universal screening recommendation by mail (effect, 6% increase in screening uptake; cost, 500 Korean won per person), and strong universal screening recommendation by mail (effect, 12% increase in screening uptake; cost, 1,000 Korean won per person). Distributional cost effectiveness analysis was conducted by calculating the cost effectiveness of strategies using the Atkinson incremental cost effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: All strategies were under the threshold value, which was set as the Korean gross domestic product of $25,990. In particular, the ‘strong screening recommendation to target regions’ strategy was found to be the most cost effective (incremental cost effectiveness ratio, 7,361,145 Korean won). This was also true when societal inequality aversion increased in the distributional cost effectiveness analysis. CONCLUSION: The ‘strong screening recommendation to target regions’ strategy was the most cost effective approach, even when adjusting for inequality. As efficiency and equity are objectives concurrently sought in healthcare, these findings imply a need to develop appropriate economic evaluation methodologies to assess healthcare policies.

Breast Cancer Epidemiology of the Working-Age Female Population Reveals Significant Implications for the South Korean Economy / 한국유방암학회지

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the economic loss due to the diagnosis of breast cancer within the female South Korean working-age population. A population-based cost analysis was performed for cancer-related diagnoses between 1999 and 2014, using respective public government funded databases. Among the five most common cancers, breast cancer mortality was strongly associated with the growth in gross domestic product between 1999 and 2014 (R=0.98). In the female population, breast cancer represented the greatest productivity loss among all cancers, which was a consequence of the peak in the incidence of breast cancer during mid-working age in the working-age population, in addition to being the most common and fastest growing cancer among South Korean women. Our study shows that breast cancer not only represents a significant disease burden for individual patients, but also contributes a real, nonnegligible loss in productivity in the South Korean economy.

Effects of Iranian Economic Reforms on Equity in Social and Healthcare Financing: A Segmented Regression Analysis / 예방의학회지

OBJECTIVES: One of the main objectives of the Targeted Subsidies Law (TSL) in Iran was to improve equity in healthcare financing. This study aimed at measuring the effects of the TSL, which was implemented in Iran in 2010, on equity in healthcare financing. METHODS: Segmented regression analysis was applied to assess the effects of TSL implementation on the Gini and Kakwani indices of outcome variables in Iranian households. Data for the years 1977-2014 were retrieved from formal databases. Changes in the levels and trends of the outcome variables before and after TSL implementation were assessed using Stata version 13. RESULTS: In the 33 years before the implementation of the TSL, the Gini index decreased from 0.401 to 0.381. The Gini index and its intercept significantly decreased to 0.362 (p < 0.001) 5 years after the implementation of the TSL. There was no statistically significant change in the gross domestic product or inflation rate after TSL implementation. The Kakwani index significantly increased from -0.020 to 0.007 (p < 0.001) before the implementation of the TSL, while we observed no statistically significant change (p=0.81) in the Kakwani index after TSL implementation. CONCLUSIONS: The TSL reform, which was introduced as part of an economic development plan in Iran in 2010, led to a significant reduction in households’ income inequality. However, the TSL did not significantly affect equity in healthcare financing. Hence, while measuring the long-term impact of TSL is paramount, healthcare decision-makers need to consider the efficacy of the TSL in order to develop plans for achieving the desired equity in healthcare financing.